On May 27, Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault resigned, stating that it was time for him to pursue the fight against climate change “in a different way”.
Guilbeault had already resigned his cabinet position in November, over the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Mark Carney and Danielle Smith, an agreement meant to pave the way for a potential pipeline to the west coast, among other things.
On May 15, Alberta and Ottawa announced an agreement on implementing the MoU. The agreement pauses clean electricity requirements, loosens regulations on methane emissions, and exempts companies from having to assess their environmental impacts. It also offers Alberta a lower industrial carbon tax relative to the rest of the country—a clear concession to oil and gas capitalists. This was the final straw for Guilbeault.
Around the same time, the Liberals released a “discussion paper” outlining “special economic zones” to fast-track development projects, in which essentially all environmental regulations would be eliminated, including protections for at-risk species.
This resulted in a Liberal MP having to clarify to a journalist that this proposal wasn’t specifically meant to kill orca whales (without stating that it wouldn’t). Environmentalists including Guilbeault declared that Carney’s climate policy was now “worse than Harper”.
Then, after his resignation, Guilbeault said he’s “not the only one who’s uncomfortable with what is happening.” Already in April, fourteen MPs sent an anonymous letter to Carney about the MoU, warning, “We remain deeply concerned; the government’s credibility will be seriously compromised.”
If more MPs do give up their seats, that will threaten Carney’s razor-thin majority in parliament. This would be a big political blow, making it much harder to push through the pipeline, or any other projects, by requiring him to earn the support of other parties.
But that’s not the end of the problems this hypothetical pipeline may cause for Carney’s government.
All of the currently proposed routes for the pipeline require lifting the “tanker ban”, which restricts the activity of large oil tankers on the north coast of B.C. Lifting the ban would be a big political gamble.
Coastal First Nations have made clear that they would fight against it, as it would be a huge threat to the ecosystems they depend on and an affront to their sovereignty. From there, the struggle could swell into a mass movement, as have numerous other struggles over Indigenous rights in B.C.
B.C. Premier David Eby does not want this fight, and is categorically not in favour of any pipeline that would require lifting the tanker ban. But that doesn’t mean Carney won’t do it.
It just means that if he does, there will be hell to pay: protests which could converge into a mass movement, national political turmoil, and thorny legal battles. This would make building a pipeline far, far more costly and time consuming.
Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t
But not pushing the pipeline forward wouldn’t politically be any easier. It would pour gasoline on the Alberta separatist movement by vindicating the argument that Ottawa is hostile to oil and gas development. This would further stress the faultline in Canadian federation.
Secondly, with the breakdown of trade with the U.S., Canadian industry is in dire straits. Manufacturing in Canada is in decline and not competitive. Therefore a key part of Carney’s strategy is to turn Canada into an “energy superpower.”
But this can’t happen without a new pipeline to the West. Currently, most Canadian crude oil is sold to the U.S., which does not offer competitive prices and which obviously no longer looks like a reliable trading partner.
All in all, Carney is stuck between many rocks and many hard places. He wants to build a pipeline to the West in order to try to build the economy, and to quell Alberta separatism.
But this means risking a mass movement, legal battles—and the Liberal majority. All this would slow or even stop the development of the pipeline and probably inflame Alberta separatism, putting Carney in an even worse position.
This reflects the situation of Canadian capitalism today: every “solution” transforms into a multitude of problems. The memorandum for a western pipeline is one such “solution”, and the potential loss of the Liberal majority is just one of the very serious problems that could arise from it.
Meanwhile, there is still no private proponent for this pipeline, and with every complication arising from the project, capitalists will only become less willing to invest. This just increases the likelihood that the government will waste billions of dollars on the project, all for it to possibly not go through, and then make ordinary people pay with public money.
Canadian capitalism has no lifeline. This memorandum and the resignation of Guilbeault are just one symptom of a much, much deeper crisis.
