In the early hours of Friday, 13 June, Israel launched a massive attack on Iran, taking out part of its military leadership and hitting some of its nuclear facilities. A second wave of Israeli strikes is ongoing at time of writing, hitting targets in Tehran, Keraj and Qom, as well as the Natanz Nuclear Enrichment Facility for a second time. This brazen act of aggression threatens to unleash a deadly regional conflagration with far-reaching consequences.
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has more than a cat’s proverbial nine lives at his disposal, at least politically speaking. He just survived yet another vote of no confidence and a brewing government crisis over the extension of military conscription to Orthodox Jews.
As many times previously, Netanyahu has shown his unique ability to pursue his own agenda and impose it on his allies and enemies. He thus immediately seized the opportunity opened by the stall in US-Iranian nuclear negotiations to launch a wave of strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military sites, and key officials, in what Israel is declaring to be the beginning of a protracted attack dubbed ‘Operation Rising Lion’.
It is not yet clear what form the inevitable Iranian retaliation will take, but one thing is clear: Netanyahu’s attack on Iran is threatening to plunge the whole of the Middle East into a full-blown war.
What is the position of US imperialism?
It is clear that the US administration was well aware of Netanyahu’s plans and was most likely aware of the timing of the strike. It would have been impossible for Israel to attack without a green light from Washington. US President Trump has acknowledged on several occasions that Netanyahu has been planning a strike on Iran for quite some time.
However, it is also clear that Netanyahu’s deliberate disregard for Trump’s calls not to proceed with the attack is a warning that he will not allow anyone, including Trump, to determine his agenda. He clearly feels confident that he can push relations with Washington further, without them reaching a breaking point.
This was clearly the case with the Gaza ceasefire, which Netanyahu was forced to sign, but firmly resolved to sabotage from day one. When Netanyahu decided to unilaterally breach it, Trump had no problem in dropping further demands for a ceasefire. Since then, Trump has allowed Israel to continue its genocidal war on the Palestinians, including the present mass starvation of Gaza, seize further territory in the Syrian Golan Heights and announce a spate of new settlements in the West Bank. US imperialism and Trump have no interest whatsoever in protecting the livelihood of the Palestinians, who continue to be used as pawns in the big powers’ games in the region.
However, Netanyahu needs more than the continuation of the genocidal war in Gaza to save his neck and keep himself at the helm. Whenever the pressure of war on Israeli society is allowed to recede into the background, the deep crisis inside Israel comes to the fore and Netanyahu’s grip on power is undermined. For this reason, Netanyahu, more than ever, is hell-bent on an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with the precise aim of dragging the US into a war with Iran. He has now launched his bid.
However, what is the interest of US imperialism? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has formally distanced the US from Netanyahu, saying that Israel took unilateral action against Iran. “We are not involved”, Rubio said, and reiterated: “Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel”. This statement is aimed at protecting US bases in the region, but it could also be interpreted as a direct threat to Iran.
Trump, meanwhile, is doubling down on his offer of reaching a deal with Iran immediately, which he says will prevent Israel from carrying out “even more brutal” attacks. However, he is also issuing open threats, blaming Iran for Israel’s attack, because they have refused to accept previous deals. Significantly, Trump is explicitly promising more US military supplies to Israel.
What does this mean? Trump seems to be temporarily backing Netanyahu’s decision in order to use Israel as a loaded gun pointed at the head of the Iranian regime, which could force a more favourable deal for US imperialism. The bottom line for Trump still seems to be a deal with Iran. However, for Netanyahu, the bottom line is an escalation of the war. Trump and Netanyahu are playing a very dangerous game, which could result in all-out escalation of war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Macron speaking on behalf of the European leaders – who have forgotten their mild criticisms of Israel’s ‘excesses’ in Gaza – has urged all parties to “de-escalate” (meaning Iran becomes the aggressor if they decide to retaliate), while giving full support to “Israel’s right to defend itself”. For once, Macron has been left behind by the German Foreign Office, who “strongly condemn the indiscriminate Iranian attack on Israeli territory”. Both are bouts of supreme hypocrisy.
What has Israel achieved?
Israel’s attack on Iran involved more than 200 war planes, which returned to their bases unscathed. The strikes pierced through Iran’s Russian air defence system, a fact that will most likely have caused embarrassment and wider repercussions in Moscow and beyond. Israel is boasting that Iran’s air defences were taken out by drones which had been previously smuggled into Iran for that purpose.
The Israeli secret services have proven once again – after the July 2024 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was hosted by the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran – that they have direct access to the highest level of secret information regarding the Iranian regime. The killing of several top-ranking Iranian generals, such as Major Generals Mohammad Bagheri, Hossein Salami and Gholam Ali Rashid, along with scientists leading the nuclear programme, is an indication of this.
However, Israel has a long history of targeted assassinations of top Iranian officials and scientists. These attacks never significantly slowed down or dented Iran’s nuclear programme. This attack, more than previous ones, seems designed to be a provocation, rather than an attempt at setting back Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
What can Iran do to retaliate?
Iran’s capacity to directly retaliate against Israel was proven on 1 October 2024, when more than 300 missiles and drones were launched in response to the Israeli assassination of Haniyeh. In spite of advance warning given by Iran, dozens of Iranian missiles pierced through Israel’s defences and repeatedly hit their targets, including military bases. The response from the Biden administration at the time reflected the panic caused by the failure of Israel’s air defences. To give Israel the edge, he decided to immediately deploy a hundred US troops to Israel to operate a sophisticated US air defence system.
Iran’s retaliation, however, could go well beyond a direct response. Hezbollah does not seem to be in the mood for attacking Israel. It has been weakened by Israel’s attacks and invasion of Lebanon in October and is still reorganising its forces, although it still holds a huge arsenal of missiles and drones. Israel was shown to be vulnerable to low-flying, large-scale drone and missile attacks. Of course, any attempt by Hezbollah would immediately provoke a new escalation of Israel’s war on Lebanon.
The Houthis have pledged to scale up their retaliation from Yemen. In May, a massive one-month-long US bombing campaign against the Houthis was suspended by Trump, because it had become clear to the US general staff that the bombing had not dented the Houthis’ defences or military capabilities in the slightest degree. Trump pulled back from a direct confrontation and signed a separate deal with the Houthis to prevent attacks on US ships in the Red Sea. It must be noted that the deal did not include Israel’s vessels.
Should the US help Israel in its defence against Iranian retaliation, it would once again likely have wide-ranging consequences on Red Sea traffic. US military vessels and bases in the area may again be exposed to attacks.
This would have severe consequences for oil prices and international trade routes, at a time when the world economy is already on the verge of a deep recession. If Iran chooses to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global oil supplies pass, the impact would be even worse.
Meanwhile, the Houthis have repeatedly shown that they are capable of hitting targets in Israel. Previously, several of their long-range missiles pierced through Israeli defences, even forcing the closure of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport.
Pro-Iran militias in Iraq are fundamentally intact and could also be used to retaliate against Israel or US bases in the region.
One obvious consequence of the attack is that Iran will immediately intensify its nuclear weapons programme. Israel’s attack is unlikely to have been effective in preventing or even slowing down the continuation of such a programme. In fact, by throwing a spanner in the works of the ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiation, Netanyahu is achieving the opposite result to his stated aims. This is further proof that what he is actually angling for is an escalation of the war in the Middle East.
Iran has claimed to have acquired proof of what has been called Israel’s ‘worst kept secret’, that is, Israel’s nuclear weapons programme. Iran has threatened to disclose documents that prove the assistance and involvement of third parties in allowing Israel to develop nuclear capabilities. However, proof of what is an open secret would not fundamentally change the situation.
Israel’s attack has once again exposed Iran’s vulnerability and deliberately embarrassed the Iranian regime. A retaliation is more than likely. In October 2024, it was abundantly clear that Iran wanted to send Israel a serious warning, but did not want escalation. This time, it is also clear that Israel does not have the ability to shield itself without direct US involvement and some degree of collaboration from Jordan and the other reactionary Arab regimes in the region.
Should a full-blown war break out between Israel and Iran, it will have severe consequences for the stability of all these regimes and expose US assets to retaliation, thus dragging the US further into the conflict.
Already, the US Navy has ordered the USS Thomas Hudner, a destroyer equipped with ballistic missile defence capabilities, to sail toward the eastern Mediterranean. A second destroyer has also been directed to move forward, positioning it for potential deployment if requested by the White House.
Netanyahu has once again sharply accelerated the crisis in the Middle East, which will have profound consequences for the stability of the region, as well as the world economy. It threatens to place full US involvement in the region back on the agenda.
