The war in Ukraine continues well into its third year. But since the election of Donald Trump, the dynamics have changed dramatically.
The war never had anything to do with Ukraine’s sovereignty. It was provoked by US imperialism under Biden, with the stated aim of teaching Russia a lesson and making sure it was unable to defy the west. Ukraine was just a pawn to be used for that purpose.
But the war has been a complete disaster – both for US and European imperialism, but above all for Ukraine.
Trump’s policy
Trump promised to end the war in 100 days, but the deadline has gone and the war continues. Trump’s policy here represents a sharp turn from the previous policy of US imperialism. He has recognised that this war against Russia cannot be won and therefore is attempting to pull the US out of it.
There is also a calculation that reaching a deal with Russia which recognises her national security interests might pull Moscow back from its close alliance with China, US imperialism’s main rival on the world scene.
Frantic diplomacy by Trump and his envoys and serious arm-twisting towards Zelensky managed to achieve the beginning of talks. For the first time since April 2022 – when peace talks in Turkey were sabotaged by the western war party in the person of Boris Johnson – the two parties met and talked.
US-Russia relations were restored, and eventually – after much wrangling – Trump strong-armed Kyiv into signing a minerals deal which amounts to the robbery of Ukraine’s national resources.
None of this was in the interest of Zelensky, who understands that today ‘peace’ means giving in to Russia’s terms, new elections, and the end of his political career.
Europeans’ sabotage
Also opposed to ending the war are the European ‘powers’. To them, the end of the conflict with a Russian victory – which is now inescapable – and the resultant withdrawal of the US mean a decisive step towards the US withdrawing from Europe.
This, in turn, would mean a steep decline for European imperialism, which will lose its clout as strategic allies of Washington.
The Europeans would furthermore be left to defend themselves from a powerful and massively strengthened neighbour, which has seen its military reinforced and has gained invaluable experience from modern warfare.
Hence the flurry of summits, Zoom calls, and ‘coalitions of the willing’ across Europe. One day in London, the next day in France, the third day in Berlin… but never able to reach any firm resolution.
The truth is that the European powers cannot stand on their own without the backing of US imperialism – and they are fully aware of it.
That’s why all the threats of troop deployment have come to precisely nothing. And that is why they are desperate to keep Washington involved in the war on Kyiv’s side, and are going to extraordinary lengths to trick Trump into it.
The latest such ploy was the 9 May ‘Europe Day’ gathering in Kyiv, with the backdrop of the red and black Banderite (i.e. fascist) flags, during which Macron put Trump on speakerphone. They thought they had roped him into backing a threat to Russia: an unconditional ceasefire or else… more sanctions.
But in less than 24 hours the plot had unravelled. Putin had counter-offered bilateral talks in Istanbul, and Trump had instructed Zelensky to send a delegation. There was no more talk of sanctions nor a ceasefire on Trump’s part.
US growing restless
If anything, the US administration is growing restless at the lack of progress – or rather, at the attempts by Macron, Merz, Starmer and Zelensky to sabotage a deal.
Trump wants to be able to deliver concrete results, which for him mean an end to the useless expense of this war, and favourable economic deals both in Ukraine (the minerals agreement) and in Russia.
In fact, by sabotaging an agreement with Russia, the Europeans – Starmer included – are playing a cynical game.
If the only way to keep the US involved in their common defence is the continuation of a bloody war which cannot be won, then so be it. That’s their line of reasoning. At the end of the day, it is Ukrainian soldiers that are being massacred.
From Russia’s point of view, if an agreement can be reached on its terms, they would be quite prepared to take it, in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But certainly Putin is in no hurry. The key term in this equation is that Russia is winning the war on the ground.
Russia’s advance
This has become a war of attrition. Russia has been steadily advancing since late 2023.
The war has become dominated by drones, a field in which Russia has decisive and growing superiority. In recent months it has switched to the use of fibre-optic cable controlled FPV which are immune to electronic jamming.
In the last few weeks Russian drones have been able to reach deep behind Ukrainian lines hitting logistics and supply lines. Russian drones are no longer bought from Iran, but made in Russia at a rate which cannot be matched by Ukraine.
In addition, Russia also has superiority in the supply of personnel, without having to resort to mass mobilisation. Meanwhile, the recruitment crisis accelerates in Ukraine due to widespread demoralisation and draft resistance.
A recent opinion article in Ukrainskaya Pravda, the Ukrainian media outlet formerly funded by USAID, worried that the “dodger’s party” is now larger that the “military party” as it reported that six million people “have decided not to report their data to the Territorial Recruitment Centres”.
The infamous 155th Mechanised Brigade, trained in France to NATO standards, was hit by a corruption scandal in which soldiers were paid for time in the frontline while staying away from it. The scheme had been set up by corrupt officers who got a cut of the bonus money.
Furthermore, it was reported that in 2025 alone the Brigade has had 1,200 cases of desertion. This is an addition to the 1,700 who went AWOL in the Autumn of last year, as the Brigade returned to Ukraine from its training in France.
The brutal methods of recruitment officers have become commonplace and so has widespread resistance to them.
It is not just groups of women shaming them and physically snatching recruits from them. Now incidents have escalated to mass resistance, as was the case last week in Kremenchug, where 100 people held an hours-long standoff with recruitment officers after one of their vans ran over a woman who attempted to prevent them from grabbing a man.
In these conditions, the Russian advance is inexorable. The Russians have made progress in all sections of the front, further encircling Pokrovsk, entering the outskirts of Kupyansk, reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk oblast and also entering the Sumy oblast to create a “buffer zone”. The implication is that at a certain point the Ukrainian defence will just collapse.
Prolonging the carnage
The longer the war goes on, the worse will be the terms of any agreement from the Ukrainian point of view. And yet, both the Europeans and Zelensky criminally insist on dragging it on.
The most recent provocation was the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields, some of them thousands of kilometres from the front, as well as the explosive attacks on a passenger and a freight train in Bryansk.
These are daring attacks which involved months of detailed planning and preparation. But from the point of view of the course of the war they have achieved precisely nothing. A few Russian strategic bombers were hit – nine according to open source intelligence, rather than the dozens boasted by Zelensky – which does not dent Russia’s ability to strike Ukraine.
It did not even stop a new round of talks in Istanbul, though that would have seemed to be the main aim of the attack.
As always, small nations are just loose change in the machinations of the big powers. Having provoked Russia into a war, US imperialism is now walking away. But the European powers and Zelensky are trying to prolong the bloodshed and carnage as much as possible, for their own cynical reasons.
